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Scientists Say 5% Chance AI Wipes Out Humanity

Survival Stats: Scientists Say 5% Chance AI Wipes Out Humanity!

In a groundbreaking survey of 2700 AI researchers, concerns have surfaced about the potential risks associated with the development of superhuman AI. The study reveals that almost 58% of experts believe there’s a 5% chance of AI causing human extinction or other catastrophic outcomes.

Mixed Opinions on AI's Impact:

While a majority acknowledges the non-trivial risk, there’s widespread disagreement and uncertainty among researchers regarding the consequences of superhuman AI. The study highlights the complexity of forecasting AI developments, with some experts cautioning against panic due to the field’s historical forecasting challenges.

Acceleration of AI Milestones:

Comparing data from a 2016 survey to a 2022 version, AI researchers predict certain milestones to occur earlier than anticipated. The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 and the subsequent deployment of similar large language models by Silicon Valley contribute to these accelerated expectations.

AI's Near-Future Capabilities:

Within the next decade, researchers foresee AI systems having a 50% or higher chance of successfully handling various tasks, from composing songs akin to Taylor Swift’s hits to coding entire payment processing sites. However, the unpredictability of breakthroughs in the AI field is acknowledged, with reminders of past “winters” marked by dwindling funding and interest.

Immediate Concerns Beyond Superhuman AI:

Beyond the debate on superhuman AI risks, immediate worries persist. Over 70% of AI researchers express substantial or extreme concern about AI-powered scenarios involving deepfakes, public opinion manipulation, engineered weapons, authoritarian control, and economic inequality. There’s also heightened awareness of AI’s potential role in spreading disinformation on critical issues like climate change and democratic governance.


AI’s zooming ahead, sparking a heated debate on its dangers. Experts see a legit risk in superhuman AI, stirring up uncertainties. Quick solutions? We need ethics, smart development, and hawk-eyed oversight to keep AI serving us without messing with our safety and vibes.

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